全文获取类型
收费全文 | 1151篇 |
免费 | 234篇 |
国内免费 | 318篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 3篇 |
大气科学 | 493篇 |
地球物理 | 214篇 |
地质学 | 197篇 |
海洋学 | 642篇 |
天文学 | 21篇 |
综合类 | 35篇 |
自然地理 | 98篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 3篇 |
2023年 | 10篇 |
2022年 | 34篇 |
2021年 | 33篇 |
2020年 | 41篇 |
2019年 | 47篇 |
2018年 | 61篇 |
2017年 | 44篇 |
2016年 | 52篇 |
2015年 | 59篇 |
2014年 | 91篇 |
2013年 | 111篇 |
2012年 | 56篇 |
2011年 | 81篇 |
2010年 | 56篇 |
2009年 | 87篇 |
2008年 | 93篇 |
2007年 | 94篇 |
2006年 | 82篇 |
2005年 | 80篇 |
2004年 | 66篇 |
2003年 | 56篇 |
2002年 | 49篇 |
2001年 | 47篇 |
2000年 | 48篇 |
1999年 | 32篇 |
1998年 | 25篇 |
1997年 | 44篇 |
1996年 | 15篇 |
1995年 | 21篇 |
1994年 | 19篇 |
1993年 | 14篇 |
1992年 | 9篇 |
1991年 | 7篇 |
1990年 | 6篇 |
1989年 | 6篇 |
1988年 | 7篇 |
1987年 | 3篇 |
1986年 | 4篇 |
1984年 | 1篇 |
1983年 | 2篇 |
1982年 | 3篇 |
1981年 | 2篇 |
1977年 | 1篇 |
1954年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有1703条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
31.
Li Zhai Blair J.W. Greenan John Hunter Thomas S. James Guoqi Han Phillip MacAulay 《大气与海洋》2015,53(5):476-490
AbstractSea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland. 相似文献
32.
北大西洋秋季“三极子”海温结构对冬季大气环流场的影响 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用NCEP再分析资料、Hadley中心的海表面温度(SST)资料等,从北大西洋秋季海表面温度异常(SSTA)变化入手,对其影响后期冬季大气环流场的机制进行了分析。研究结果如下:(1)北大西洋SST异常与大气环流异常之间存在着相互作用;(2)秋季北大西洋SSTA具有较好的持续性,"正负正"海温异常空间分布导致12月巴伦支海上空500hPa位势高度异常偏高;(3)异常环流形势对应的海表面风异常场(SSWA)通过阶段性风-蒸发-SST异常反馈机制(WES机制)利于海温异常分布的持续及对上空异常大气环流的反馈;(4)三极子海温结构中负异常海温自10月份开始有自西向东的移动,风作用下蒸发加大,伴随上升运动自欧洲西部爱尔兰群岛出现自西向东移动的降水正异常区,潜热释放有利于冬季巴伦支海上空的异常高压脊发展。研究表明,北大西洋秋季SSTA通过阶段性海气相互作用机制影响海洋温度分布和大气环流异常,对后期冬季中国东北部的气候变化产生影响。 相似文献
33.
With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as external forcing on El Ni(n)o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is studied. The obs... 相似文献
34.
《Marine Policy》2015
Achieving a balance between fishing capacity and fishing opportunities is one of the major challenges in European fisheries. One way to achieve this is to introduce individual tradable quotas or similar management measures. In several mackerel and herring fisheries in the Northeast Atlantic, such systems have already been introduced on a national basis and the long term economic gains of this have been acknowledged. This paper takes this a step further and investigates the potential economic gains from introducing individual tradable quotas between countries. Overall, the results show that the gross cash flow can be improved by 21% by allowing the mackerel and herring quotas to be traded internationally in the Northeast Atlantic. This rent gain arises mainly from increased productivity by allowing tradability between areas and fleets. The analysis also shows that the Danish pelagic fleet will gain from increasing its share of mackerel and herring quotas, whereas the Irish fleets are incentivised to sell quota, if individual quotas are allowed to be traded among countries. This result is in line with the qualitative analyses that show that Irish fishermen targeting herring in the Celtic Sea are negatively oriented towards international individual tradable quotas, whereas the Danish pelagic fishermen have strong preferences for international individual tradable quotas. 相似文献
35.
《Marine Policy》2015
Despite the importance of the socio-economic dimension of the use of marine waters, there has been little research in the field until recently, when interest has grown in the concept of ‘blue growth'. This paper aims to contribute to filling this gap with a socio-economic assessment of the main maritime sectors, focused on the Spanish part of the European Atlantic Arc. To this end, it first proposes a theoretical structure for the maritime economy and then collects and classifies comparable and reliable maritime socio-economic indicators. The data obtained allows us to assess the size of the Spanish maritime sector and the position of the Spanish Maritime Cluster in the wider context of the maritime economy of the European Atlantic, as well as discuss the appropriateness of a strategy of forming clusters at the national level vs. a transnational approach. The results indicate differences between regions in the European Atlantic Arc that complicate the development of integrated policies to stimulate blue growth. Extending our knowledge of the maritime economy of the European Atlantic Arc will make it possible to design strategies that address the real issues, increasing the likelihood of these being effective. 相似文献
36.
2009年中国东北夏季低温及其与前期海气系统变化的联系 总被引:6,自引:2,他引:4
依据中国东北地区拥有百年地面观测记录的长春和哈尔滨测站气温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和英国哈得来中心海表温度资料,揭示2009年东北地区发生的迄今已有15年没有出现的夏季低温事件成因.结果表明:发生东北夏季低温时的水平和垂直环流结构均为低值系统,东北冷涡异常活动是其最直接的影响因子;有利的年代际变化背景是,哈尔滨和长春6-8月平均气温年代际尺度(≥9 a)的振荡值1999-2008年约-O.8℃/10 a,显著低于全球变暖东北区域响应的线性增暖值0.2℃/10 a(1961-2000年),与长春和哈尔滨夏季气温呈正相关的前一年冬季太平洋极涡面积指数年代际振荡亦呈显著下降趋势.与1994-2008年东北夏季高温的500 hPa平均环流距平场显著不同,北极涛动呈强的负位相分布,东北亚、阿留申和北大西洋上空为显著负距平区;2009年前一年冬季与明显低温的1972年的前一年冬季北太平洋涛动均呈显著的负位相,春季仍持续,且2009年前一年冬季赤道中东太平洋SSTA为拉尼娜位相,2009年春季明显减弱;2009年6-7月夏季东北冷涡活动异常强与4-5月500 hPa北太平洋地区超长波扰动转为定常波扰动槽有关;SVD和谐波分析表明,北太平洋涛动的异常位相不仅是东北夏季气温变化的重要前期信号,还是大气中除了天气尺度的混沌分量外可提取的一种行星尺度稳定分量. 相似文献
37.
Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model,the impact of the uncertainties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) on ENSO predictability was studied using a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing.The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP);compared to CNOP-type initial error,the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller prediction uncertainty of ENSO,and its influence over the ENSO predictability was not significant.This result suggests that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction,which could provide a theoretical foundation for the data assimilation of the ENSO forecast. 相似文献
38.
39.
The Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG version 2 (GAMIL2) has
been developed through upgrading the deep convection parameterization, cumulus
cloud fraction and two-moment cloud microphysical scheme, as well as changing
some of the large uncertain parameters. In this paper, its performance is
evaluated, and the results suggest that there are some significant improvements
in GAMIL2 compared to the previous version GAMIL1, for example, the components
of the energy budget at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface; the geographic
distribution of shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF); the ratio of
stratiform versus total rainfall; the response of atmospheric circulation to
the tropical ocean; and the eastward propagation and spatiotemporal structures
of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Furthermore, the indirect aerosols
effect (IAE) is -0.94 W m-2, within the range of 0 to -2 W m-2
given by the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007). The influence of uncertain
parameters on the MJO and radiation fluxes is also discussed. 相似文献
40.
AbstractIntervention experiments using the Coupled Forecast System model, version 2 (CFSv2), have been performed in which various Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) evolutions were added to the model’s internally generated heating: Slow Repeated Cycles, Slow Single Cycle, Fast Repeated Cycles, and Fast Single Cycle. In each experiment, one of these specified MJO evolutions of tropical diabatic heating was added in multiple ensemble reforecasts of boreal winter (1 November to 31 March for 31 winters: 1980–2010). Since in each experiment, multiple re-forecasts were made with the identical heating evolution added, predictable component analysis is used to identify modes with the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Traditional MJO-phase analysis of total model heating (dominated by internally generated heating) shows that the MJO-related heating structure compares well with heating estimated from observed fast and slow episodes; however, the model heating is larger by a factor of two. The evolution of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes indicates a clear response due to the added heating, with a robust increase in the frequency of occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO?) after the heating crosses into the Pacific and a somewhat less robust increase in the positive phase of the NAO (NAO+) following Indian Ocean heating. In the Fast Cycle experiments, the model response is somewhat muted compared with the Slow Cycle experiments. The Scandinavian Blocking regime becomes more frequent prior to the NAO? regime. The two leading modes in the predictable component analysis of 300?hPa height (Z300), synoptic scale feedback (DZ300), and planetary wave diabatic heating in all experiments form an oscillatory pair with high statistical significance. The oscillatory pair represents the cyclic response to the particular MJO signal (Fast or Slow, Single, or Repeated Cycles) in each case. The period is about 64 days for the Slow Cycle and 36 days for the Fast Cycle, consistent with the imposed periods. The time series of one of the leading modes of Z300 is highly anti-correlated with the frequency of occurrence of the NAO– in the Repeated Cycle experiments. A clear cycle involving the Z300 and DZ300 leading modes is identified. 相似文献